AIDS epidemiology : a quantitative approach

AIDS has appeared in more than 130 countries, and over 100,000 cases of AIDS have been reported in the U.S. alone. More and more, the public will be depending on statisticians to provide answers about the future course of this epidemic. This comprehensive work confronts the problems that are unique to AIDS research and unites them under a single conceptual framework. It focuses on methods for the design and analysis of epidemiologic studies, the natural history of AIDS and the transmission of HIV, methods for tracking and projecting the course of the epidemic, and statistical issues in therapeutic trials. The various methods of monitoring and forecasting this disease receive comprehensive treatment. These methods include back-calculation, which the authors developed; interpretation of survey data on HIV prevalence; mathematical models for HIV transmission; and approaches that combine different types of epidemiological data. Much of this material - such as a discussion of methods for assessing safety of the blood supply, an evaluation of survey approaches, and methods to project paediatric AIDS incidence - is not available in any other work. This is an essential purchase for all AIDS investigators and epidemiologists.

1: Introduction 2: Risk Factors for Infection and the Probability of HIV Transmission 3: Surveys for Seroprevalence and Seroincidence 4: The Incubation Period Distribution 5: Cofactors and Markers 6: Screening and Accuracy of Tests for HIV 7: Statistical Issues in Surveillance of AIDS Incidence 8: Back-Calculation 9: Epidemic Transmission Models 10: Synthesizing Data Sources and Methods for Assessing the Scope of the Epidemic 11: Developing and Evaluating New Therapies and Vaccines